Posted Monday, April 20, 2009 by
Sara Heimann
The Chairman of the Board for Alliance Financial Services recently had a discussion with the President of
Bank of Indiana, one of our
partners in credit card processing. The conversation turned to commercial real estate in the current economy, something outside the scope of merchant advances and accepting credit cards, but some of the insights were later shared with me in an email.
Many of these talking points are affecting the businesses who use AFS for their credit card processing needs. And since many of those clients are readers of my blog, I thought I'd share it here.
Dan,
Your questions got me thinking about what is really happening in the area of commercial real estate. Here are the 5 areas that must be well thought out before investors, bankers, and stakeholders can address their risk and position in the market:
Property Values: I see commercial property values continuing to decrease throughout the remainder of the year. I believe they will remain at these low values for about 3 to 4 years. This is in part based on the excessive dark space created by retail bankruptcies of tenants and in part due to financial institutions requiring higher equity positions by investors.
Cap Rates: With property values decreasing, the inverse is true for cap rates. I expect cap rates to move by 200 basis points from the lows we saw in late 2007. For example, the prototypical Dollar General sale that may have been at 7.5% will move to 9.5%
Interest Rates: Interest rates are low, but spreads based on prime are higher. This is in part because cost of funds for most banks have not been able to adjust as rapidly as the Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate. So, even if the Fed raises rates, I don't see loan rates going up in the near future. I also don't see the Fed raising rates any substantial amount in the near future since inflation is nearly non-existent.
Capital Markets: Capital markets will only free up when consumer confidence returns. With the prediction of rising unemployment over the several months, I don't think we will see a rebound in consumer confidence until next year. Even with the infusion of the stimulus package, the TARP funds, etc., I don't think the capital markets are going to respond strongly until 2010.
Equity: There continues to be pressure on investors from financial institutions for higher equity positions. The days of 80% LTV's for conventional retail centers are gone. Many banks are asking for 30-35% equity. This will continue to hold the real estate market pricing down as investors will need to justify the ROI that they will be getting.
Pretty interesting stuff, don't you think? I'll continue to push the board members to provide more content, as I think their combined expertise and experience brings a lot of value to Alliance Financial Services and our merchant customers.